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Estimating parameters for pair of differential equations efficiently


I'm trying to estimate the parameters for the following pair of differential equations


meq = gamma*v[t]*m[t] - mu*m[t];
veq = v[t]*(k - epsilon - mu) - v[t]^2*k + m[t]*l - m[t]^2*l -
m[t]*v[t]*(k + l + gamma);
equations = {m'[t] == meq, v'[t] == veq};

where gamma, k, l and epsilon are parameters to be estimated, and mu is a known parameter with value 4.58*10^(-5). Also I have initial conditions given by


initials = {m[0] == 2.03, v[0] == 3.09};
mu = 4.58*10^(-5)


and the data for the function m is the following


data = {{60, 2.13597}, {300, 2.27247}, {390, 2.29472}, {420, 2.40096}, {630, 
2.59312}, {660, 2.84918}, {780, 2.93677}, {1020, 3.02945}, {1110,
3.04794}, {1140, 3.05796}, {1140, 3.08739}, {1380, 3.21218}, {1380,
3.2873}, {1500, 3.3347}, {1680, 3.44467}, {1710, 3.47574}, {1710,
3.48421}, {1830, 3.50433}}

I defined a parametric solution for the pair of equations with


pfun = ParametricNDSolveValue[Join[equations, initials], m, {t, 0, 2000}, 

{epsilon, k, l, gamma}]

And then I tried to use FindFit as


fit = FindFit[data, pfun[epsilon, k, l, gamma][t], {epsilon, k, l, gamma}, 
t]

However this method seems to be super inefficient as it seems to take unreasonable amount of time to complete the fit. Is there a way maybe to form the parametric function in a way that the FindFit works faster or use the FindFit more efficiently? Of course if you have another faster method in mind it's very welcome.


I also tried to solve this with some different programs than Mathematica and they seems to be working much faster but in those I have no idea what algorithms they use and also in them I have serious data issues.



Answer



Here you need to use a different model. In this model, too, not everything is smooth, but the result is clear and fast



meq = gamma*v[t]*m[t] - mu*m[t];
veq = v[t]*(k - epsilon - mu) - v[t]^2*k + m[t]*l - m[t]^2*l -
m[t]*v[t]*(k + l + gamma);
equations = {m'[t] == meq, v'[t] == veq};
initials = {m[0] == 2.03, v[0] == 3.09};
mu = 4.58*10^(-5);
data = {{60, 2.13597}, {300, 2.27247}, {390, 2.29472}, {420,
2.40096}, {630, 2.59312}, {660, 2.84918}, {780, 2.93677}, {1020,
3.02945}, {1110, 3.04794}, {1140, 3.05796}, {1140,
3.08739}, {1380, 3.21218}, {1380, 3.2873}, {1500, 3.3347}, {1680,

3.44467}, {1710, 3.47574}, {1710, 3.48421}, {1830, 3.50433}};


model[epsilon_?NumberQ, k_?NumberQ, l_?NumberQ,
gamma_?NumberQ] := (model[epsilon, k, l, gamma] =
First[m /.
NDSolve[{v'[t] ==
v[t]*(k - epsilon - mu) - v[t]^2*k + m[t]*l - m[t]^2*l -
m[t]*v[t]*(k + l + gamma),
m'[t] == gamma*v[t]*m[t] - mu*m[t], m[0] == 2.03,

v[0] == 3.09}, {m, v}, {t, 2000}]]);

fit =
FindFit[data,
model[epsilon, k, l, gamma][
t], {{epsilon, -4.8}, {k, 4.9}, {l, 0.}, {gamma, .1}}, t,
PrecisionGoal -> 4, AccuracyGoal -> 4]

(*Out[]= {epsilon -> -4.78195, k -> 4.89863, l -> -0.00336569,
gamma -> 0.0769293}*)


Show[
Plot[model[epsilon, k, l, gamma][t] /. fit, {t, 0, 2000}],
ListPlot[data, PlotStyle -> Orange]]

fig1


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